Duration of assignment: 8 months
Narrative description of Project:
With Armenia’s economy increasingly exposed to external shocks, including military conflicts, natural disasters, and global supply chain disruptions, the need for a robust forecasting mechanism has never been more critical. The World Food Programme is supporting the development of an Econometric Model for Forecasting Socio-Economic Shocks to strengthen Armenia’s resilience against such disruptions. This initiative aims to equip policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and government institutions with a data-driven early warning system to anticipate, prepare for, and mitigate socio-economic shocks effectively.
The project will begin with an in-depth analysis of Armenia’s socio-economic vulnerabilities, focusing on supply-side and demand-side factors contributing to socio-economic instability. Supply-side shocks, including disruptions in agricultural production, international price volatility, and dependency on imports, will be carefully studied. On the demand side, the project will analyze key factors influencing household income, such as employment trends, wage levels, remittances, and purchasing power.
The econometric model will incorporate a wide range of indicators, including macroeconomic and socio-economic variables, trade balances, inflation rates, poverty levels, and demographic trends. These indicators will be used to develop forecasting mechanisms capable of identifying thresholds for potential shocks, offering timely alerts for decision-makers.
A significant component of the project will focus on stakeholder engagement and consultations. Interviews and discussions will be held with representatives from government ministries, international organizations, research institutions, and non-governmental organizations to validate the model’s structure and ensure its alignment with stakeholder needs.
The finalized model will feature user-friendly dashboards designed for continuous monitoring and evaluation of socio-economic indicators. These dashboards will include color-coded alerts to signal risks, enabling swift policy interventions. Additionally, the project will provide training ensuring effective use, interpretation, and maintenance of the forecasting model.
Ultimately, this project aims to create a dynamic and adaptable early warning system that enables the Armenian government and humanitarian partners to make evidence-based decisions, reduce the impact of socio-economic shocks on vulnerable populations, and build long-term resilience in Armenia’s socio-economic systems.